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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 30 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 30 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 27 games
74%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Fly · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Wein · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 754 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 342 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 636 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 544 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
371 picks · 654 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 556 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 463 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 149 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:26
1w Team 66%AVULUS 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
57% · 158 games49% · 412 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
47% · 275 games42% · 64 games
SlarkSmiling Knight
Slark
Underlord
UnderlordSSS
51% · 86 games46% · 119 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenRein
56% · 152 games46% · 182 games
Shadow DemonWein
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
52% · 262 games53% · 156 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Game 2prediction correct30:8
1w Team 66%AVULUS 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
56% · 341 game53% · 296 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckSquad1x
53% · 332 games46% · 88 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
47% · 187 games51% · 403 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRein
55% · 84 games50% · 416 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
45% · 382 games44% · 123 games
LionWein
Lion
Game 3prediction correct29:19
1w Team 64%AVULUS 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMunkushi~
63% · 156 games48% · 90 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Puck
PuckSquad1x
53% · 341 game52% · 110 games
PudgeSmiling Knight
Pudge
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
49% · 317 games51% · 97 games
Night StalkerCorrupted
Night Stalker
Dazzle
DazzleRein
48% · 116 games46% · 448 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
45% · 192 games47% · 377 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3