European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 33 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 20 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
B8 Esports
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
Chensignature
Mary_y · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 209 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 587 bans
Batrider
398 picks · 744 bans
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 534 bans
Rubick
382 picks · 153 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 687 bans
Gyrocopter
341 picks · 298 bans
Mars
334 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
1w Team 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Lunarincyq
TimbersawCloud
DazzleDendi
ViperChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knightegxrdemxn
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
GyrocopterMary_y
Tinyswedenstrong
BaneCTOMAHEH1
Game 2prediction correct24:6
1w Team 67%B8 Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorMunkushi~
Meeporincyq
DoomCloud
DazzleDendi
PuckChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knightegxrdemxn
EnchantressRESPECT
ChenMary_y
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2