PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BBBikini Bottomloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 23 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
Bikini Bottom
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
Slardar
Corrupted · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Ringmaster
aik · 2 games
Techies
aik · 2 games
Alchemist
Immersion · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
426 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 205 bans
Puck
347 picks · 896 bans
Pugna
319 picks · 363 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 139 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 673 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 839 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
1w Team 81%Bikini Bottom 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 2prediction correct32:41
1w Team 66%Bikini Bottom 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:05:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSSS
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
WindrangerMunkushi~
Dragon Knightrincyq
Storm SpiritSquad1x
TidehunterCorrupted
Jakirokasane
PhoenixImmersion
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Disruptoraik
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 81%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2