1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Entitywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 18 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
Marssignature
Cloud · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
354 picks · 560 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
Mars
341 picks · 515 bans
Techies
327 picks · 257 bans
Batrider
319 picks · 624 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 185 bans
Tiny
297 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:15
1w Team 35%Entity 65%
The model gave 65% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 39:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 65%
Series resultEntity 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1