CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 14 games
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
Marci
Wein · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 8 games
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
535 picks · 559 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 516 bans
Terrorblade
324 picks · 715 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 197 bans
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 591 bans
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 440 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:21
1w Team 73%eSpoiled 27%
The model gave 73% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSquad1x
Svenssnovv1
GyrocopterMunkushi~
MarciWein
LycanSSS
Shadow Shamanasdekor_r
Tuskswedenstrong
Undyingkasane
Game 2prediction correct33:7
1w Team 72%eSpoiled 28%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Medusassnovv1
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
DazzleSSS
Dark WillowWein
Pudgeswedenstrong
Chenkasane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 87%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2