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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 397 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
467 picks · 582 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 556 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 533 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 773 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 467 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 874 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 232 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
1w Team 75%Hydra 25%
The model gave 75% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:12.
Game 2prediction correct30:17
1w Team 75%Hydra 25%
The model gave 75% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:12.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 75%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2