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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 17 games
53%

Ivory

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Teehee · 8 games
13%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Rupido · 7 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Karma丶 · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Dric~ · 6 games
17%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 590 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 407 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 402 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 476 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
422 picks · 201 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 259 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 869 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
1w Team 69%Ivory 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
55% · 173 games47% · 303 games
PangolierKen
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinyv1olent-
46% · 420 games50% · 160 games
MuertaKarma丶
Muerta
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
48% · 255 games52% · 229 games
SlardarRupido
Slardar
Io
Ioswedenstrong
50% · 30 games50% · 120 games
ClockwerkTeehee
Clockwerk
Bane
BaneRein
56% · 219 games45% · 285 games
RingmasterDric~
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct21:4
1w Team 67%Ivory 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 20:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
50% · 96 games57% · 180 games
TerrorbladeKarma丶
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarSquad1x
51% · 420 games39% · 221 game
PangolierKen
Pangolier
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
49% · 298 games45% · 184 games
TidehunterRupido
Tidehunter
Techies
Techiesswedenstrong
50% · 56 games51% · 257 games
HoodwinkDric~
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
59% · 77 games56% · 105 games
BaneTeehee
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 81%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2