?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
RESPECT · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 19 games
68%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Panto · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
459 picks · 619 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 434 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 480 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
334 picks · 418 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 607 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 356 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 270 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
1w Team 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 52:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
47% · 149 games46% · 206 games
Gyrocopterv1olent-
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
52% · 173 games53% · 185 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
56% · 250 games46% · 344 games
PangolierMirage
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskRESPECT
47% · 329 games55% · 124 games
ChenPanto
Chen
Magnus
MagnusCloud
52% · 163 games46% · 205 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct26:15
1w Team 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
47% · 361 game48% · 328 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCloud
51% · 79 games49% · 135 games
MagnusMirage
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
47% · 528 games51% · 304 games
Primal BeastAlberkaaa
Primal Beast
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
61% · 79 games47% · 298 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRESPECT
51% · 362 games50% · 344 games
BatriderOneJey
Batrider
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2