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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 16 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 14 games
64%

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 18 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 793 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 329 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 693 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
423 picks · 769 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 393 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 887 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
394 picks · 1079 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 534 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total57% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:19
1w Team 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
51% · 154 games48% · 359 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
57% · 177 games49% · 66 games
Slarkv1olent-
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
52% · 214 games44% · 120 games
MedusaMalik
Medusa
Warlock
WarlockHduo
48% · 124 games49% · 117 games
Bounty Huntermrls
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
55% · 202 games46% · 209 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct8:23
1w Team 46%HULIGANI 54%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
48% · 148 games54% · 361 game
Gyrocopterv1olent-
Gyrocopter
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
48% · 176 games55% · 149 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsSSS
44% · 187 games55% · 210 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Muerta
Muertaswedenstrong
47% · 336 games45% · 26 games
Ringmastermrls
Ringmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHduo
48% · 284 games51% · 385 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 57%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2