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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 30 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 26 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
65%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
59%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 30 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 30 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Force · 26 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 25 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 24 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 24 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
29%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 475 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 544 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
337 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 436 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 655 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 322 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:28
1w Team 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
40% · 81 game53% · 61 game
BloodseekerUlnit
Bloodseeker
Monkey King
Monkey KingSquad1x
50% · 90 games50% · 101 game
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
48% · 272 games59% · 151 game
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
46% · 204 games53% · 146 games
Naga SirenTobi
Naga Siren
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
52% · 38 games49% · 226 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct28:21
1w Team 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
48% · 112 games45% · 183 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
53% · 162 games45% · 66 games
BroodmotherForce
Broodmother
Mars
MarsCloud
53% · 245 games52% · 126 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Muerta
Muertaswedenstrong
44% · 150 games54% · 128 games
PugnaTobi
Pugna
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRESPECT
50% · 67 games55% · 233 games
ClockwerkImmersion
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2