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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 40 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 23 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 11 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 664 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
413 picks · 592 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 730 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
410 picks · 379 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 956 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:43
1w Team 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:06:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeCloud
47% · 28 games56% · 36 games
Chaos KnightYuragi
Chaos Knight
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
45% · 137 games51% · 121 game
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
49% · 101 game51% · 65 games
Death ProphetNefrit
Death Prophet
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
59% · 80 games50% · 87 games
Spirit BreakerZayac
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
54% · 112 games40% · 149 games
PhoenixMalady
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed40:25
1w Team 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:02:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMunkushi~
55% · 30 games55% · 57 games
ZeusSancity
Zeus
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
46% · 126 games55% · 57 games
Troll WarlordYuragi
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeCloud
48% · 44 games44% · 72 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
44% · 152 games52% · 128 games
SnapfireMalady
Snapfire
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
60% · 35 games52% · 73 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct11:32
1w Team 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMunkushi~
49% · 112 games52% · 131 game
WeaverYuragi
Weaver
Timbersaw
TimbersawChira JUNIOR
47% · 137 games53% · 183 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsCloud
47% · 99 games48% · 44 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Zeus
Zeusswedenstrong
53% · 66 games46% · 113 games
Spirit BreakerZayac
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
54% · 132 games49% · 75 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3