?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 17 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 618 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 373 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
340 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 442 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 416 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 162 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 553 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
1w Team 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 23:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
54% · 91 game44% · 186 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
57% · 191 game45% · 106 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCloud
54% · 158 games49% · 284 games
PangolierSancity
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
49% · 187 games57% · 40 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
50% · 150 games45% · 161 game
HoodwinkZayac
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct32:10
1w Team 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
48% · 71 game50% · 162 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordCloud
44% · 67 games47% · 214 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
51% · 269 games56% · 153 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
50% · 56 games48% · 118 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
50% · 212 games57% · 28 games
LichMalady
Lich
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 55%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2