BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
Warlock
kasane · 32 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 30 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 29 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 25 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 20 games
Dazzle
Riddys · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
565 picks · 642 bans
Tusk
502 picks · 329 bans
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 685 bans
Snapfire
458 picks · 170 bans
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 528 bans
Hoodwink
430 picks · 204 bans
Mars
392 picks · 528 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total66% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:8
1w Team 41%Natus Vincere 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMunkushi~
Morphlinggotthejuice
SniperSquad1x
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Primal BeastSSS
Queen of PainNiku
Skywrath MageRein
WarlockRiddys
Tuskswedenstrong
Bounty HunterZayac
Game 2prediction correct7:21
1w Team 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMunkushi~
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Void SpiritSquad1x
Underlordpma
LycanSSS
Ember SpiritNiku
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
LionZayac
RingmasterRein
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Game 3prediction correct12:28
1w Team 43%Natus Vincere 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Omniknightgotthejuice
Shadow FiendSquad1x
Underlordpma
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
HuskarNiku
Crystal MaidenRein
DisruptorRiddys
Tuskswedenstrong
Treant ProtectorZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3