BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Hoodwink
Ari · 40 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 21 game
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 18 games
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
Natus Vincere
Hoodwink
Daze · 27 games
Axesignature
pma · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Daze · 24 games
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
Miranasignature
Riddys · 17 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
Banesignature
Riddys · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
502 picks · 299 bans
Dark Willow
402 picks · 168 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 493 bans
Winter Wyvern
315 picks · 283 bans
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 309 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 492 bans
Undying
277 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 81%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total62% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:35
1w Team 43%Natus Vincere 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPure~
Lifestealergotthejuice
Centaur Warrunner33
Timbersawpma
Earthshakerbzm
PangolierNiku
WindrangerAri
Dark WillowDaze
TechiesWhitemon
BaneRiddys
Game 2prediction missed36:45
1w Team 42%Natus Vincere 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 49:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPure~
Lifestealergotthejuice
Outworld Destroyerbzm
Doompma
Earth Spirit33
UndyingNiku
RingmasterWhitemon
HoodwinkDaze
Dark WillowAri
BaneRiddys
Game 3prediction missed
1w Team 38%Natus Vincere 62%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 6prediction missed33:16
1w Team 42%Natus Vincere 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPure~
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Ember Spiritbzm
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Tidehunter33
PangolierNiku
DazzleWhitemon
HoodwinkDaze
Dark WillowAri
Winter WyvernRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 62%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4