European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 36 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 23 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 33 games
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Pugna
Riddys · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 210 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 601 bans
Batrider
391 picks · 736 bans
Centaur Warrunner
382 picks · 532 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 154 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 303 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 701 bans
Mars
332 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:12
1w Team 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMunkushi~
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
TimbersawCloud
DazzleNiku
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Pangolierpma
Rubickswedenstrong
BatriderDaze
Shadow DemonRESPECT
PugnaRiddys
Game 2prediction missed23:45
1w Team 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawCloud
Ursagotthejuice
SniperChira JUNIOR
Doompma
PudgeMunkushi~
PangolierNiku
GyrocopterRESPECT
SnapfireDaze
Baneswedenstrong
LionRiddys
Game 3prediction missed37:11
1w Team 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMunkushi~
Pudgegotthejuice
TimbersawCloud
PuckNiku
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
Razorpma
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
LionRiddys
ClockwerkRESPECT
GyrocopterDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3