Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 20 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 13 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
Phoenix
Riddys · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
484 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
479 picks · 564 bans
Ringmaster
450 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
353 picks · 709 bans
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 490 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 724 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 252 bans
Windranger
292 picks · 91 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:19
1w Team 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaMunkushi~
Svengotthejuice
BeastmasterSSS
Death ProphetNiku
TinySquad1x
Underlordpma
Chenkasane
PugnaRiddys
Chaos Knightswedenstrong
Shadow ShamanZayac
Game 2prediction correct15:24
1w Team 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSquad1x
Svengotthejuice
LycanSSS
Death ProphetNiku
KunkkaMunkushi~
Tidehunterpma
Chaos Knightswedenstrong
MagnusZayac
Ancient Apparitionkasane
OracleRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2