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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 32 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 25 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
81%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 16 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
637 picks · 694 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 398 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
412 picks · 373 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1084 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 818 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 563 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
1w Team 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
51% · 189 games44% · 225 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
50% · 309 games48% · 46 games
Slarkselfhate
Slark
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
52% · 325 games47% · 273 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Monkey King
Monkey Kingswedenstrong
52% · 221 game47% · 376 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Rubick
RubickRein
58% · 120 games53% · 244 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct26:4
1w Team 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
44% · 621 game49% · 193 games
TidehunterCovisnine
Tidehunter
Mars
Marsv1olent-
47% · 361 game57% · 219 games
Monkey Kingselfhate
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
48% · 141 game52% · 484 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
55% · 360 games48% · 525 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
45% · 146 games54% · 208 games
Muertaariel
Muerta
Game 3prediction missed30:45
1w Team 66%Nemiga Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:06:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomv1olent-
54% · 191 game53% · 231 game
Templar Assassinselfhate
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
46% · 317 games45% · 323 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
57% · 313 games51% · 256 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
51% · 77 games36% · 32 games
TechiesVaniLLl
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
55% · 378 games46% · 434 games
Tuskariel
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3