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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 17 games
65%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 689 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 648 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
396 picks · 324 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 361 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 471 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
382 picks · 842 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
350 picks · 155 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:52
1w Team 54%Night Pulse 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
56% · 170 games50% · 294 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Razor
RazorCloud
48% · 78 games48% · 53 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
55% · 209 games50% · 342 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
39% · 153 games52% · 203 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Techies
TechiesRESPECT
51% · 282 games
Game 2prediction correct46:13
1w Team 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
45% · 130 games53% · 150 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCloud
50% · 42 games52% · 163 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracChira JUNIOR
54% · 75 games56% · 164 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
43% · 413 games47% · 361 game
TechiesJANTER
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
50% · 178 games
Game 3prediction missed20:35
1w Team 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 54:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
52% · 158 games49% · 298 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
46% · 133 games58% · 99 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaCloud
42% · 154 games41% · 36 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Chen
ChenRESPECT
60% · 76 games53% · 194 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
45% · 106 games
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 56%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3