FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:3series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:3
nounswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 32 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 29 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 20 games
nouns
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 28 games
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
Svenoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
441 picks · 368 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 457 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 880 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 833 bans
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 525 bans
Clockwerk
339 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total64% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:27
1w Team 58%nouns 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:04:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMunkushi~
BeastmasterGunnar
DoomCloud
MiranaYuma
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Primal BeastCopy
Naga SirenRESPECT
Crystal MaidenFly
Sniperswedenstrong
AlchemistLelis
Game 2prediction missed10:24
1w Team 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by nouns in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomCloud
Primal BeastCopy
PangolierChira JUNIOR
EnigmaGunnar
MiranaMunkushi~
WindrangerYuma
Rubickswedenstrong
Shadow DemonLelis
ClockwerkRESPECT
OmniknightFly
Game 3prediction missed40:38
1w Team 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by nouns in 1:14:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawCloud
Storm SpiritCopy
WindrangerMunkushi~
BeastmasterGunnar
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
AlchemistYuma
TuskRESPECT
MiranaLelis
Sniperswedenstrong
Crystal MaidenFly
Game 4prediction missed21:41
1w Team 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by nouns in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaMunkushi~
BeastmasterGunnar
PangolierCloud
MiranaYuma
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Monkey KingCopy
Leshracswedenstrong
Shadow DemonFly
IoRESPECT
Nyx AssassinLelis
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 64%
Series resultnouns 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4