FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 20 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
OG
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 12 games
Muerta
Daze · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
565 picks · 795 bans
Muerta
447 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
432 picks · 672 bans
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 796 bans
Bristleback
403 picks · 873 bans
Clockwerk
393 picks · 372 bans
Magnus
384 picks · 1059 bans
Pangolier
382 picks · 526 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:34
1w Team 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMunkushi~
MedusaDavai
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
PangolierStormstormer
Dark SeerSSS
Slardar423
Ancient ApparitionHduo
TinkerKidaro
Weaverswedenstrong
WindrangerDaze
Game 2prediction missed34:24
1w Team 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Terrorblade423
HuskarChira JUNIOR
Storm SpiritStormstormer
MagnusSSS
MarsDavai
Slarkswedenstrong
Keeper of the LightDaze
JakiroHduo
SilencerKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2