DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 18 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 18 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 26 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
600 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
525 picks · 526 bans
Puck
392 picks · 1082 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 187 bans
Mars
350 picks · 589 bans
Pugna
347 picks · 391 bans
Warlock
344 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 259 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:35
1w Team 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
LycanMikSa`
PangolierSSS
UrsaShad
Shadow FiendSquad1x
Storm SpiritStojkov
Tinyswedenstrong
RubickDaze
Disruptorkasane
Shadow Demonn0tail
Game 2prediction correct43:19
1w Team 69%OG 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonMunkushi~
Nature's ProphetStojkov
DawnbreakerSSS
LifestealerShad
LeshracSquad1x
PudgeMikSa`
Tinyswedenstrong
HoodwinkDaze
Naga Sirenkasane
Disruptorn0tail
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2