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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 23 games
39%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 18 games
44%

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 15 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
Natsumi · 15 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
510 picks · 370 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 227 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
366 picks · 649 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 346 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
320 picks · 235 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
316 picks · 329 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 440 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 394 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total63% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:42
1w Team 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by OG in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPure~
little data50% · 241 game
MuertaNatsumi
Muerta
Puck
Puckbzm
47% · 260 games45% · 112 games
Earth SpiritYopaj
Earth Spirit
Largo
Largo33
51% · 133 games53% · 106 games
Night StalkerRaven
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
51% · 315 games48% · 81 game
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
57% · 127 games47% · 295 games
ClockwerkTims
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct38:21
1w Team 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaPure~
56% · 29 games56% · 102 games
LycanRaven
Lycan
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
60% · 285 games60% · 25 games
SpectreNatsumi
Spectre
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
56% · 195 games46% · 502 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
48% · 331 game35% · 219 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernWhitemon
50% · 61 game46% · 53 games
Witch DoctorSkem
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2