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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 16 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
35%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 21 game
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
540 picks · 763 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 326 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 701 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 889 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
390 picks · 1047 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 519 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total58% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:19
1w Team 55%One Move 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMunkushi~
53% · 302 games48% · 143 games
Alchemistnesfeer
Alchemist
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
49% · 290 games54% · 216 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Leshrac
LeshracChira JUNIOR
49% · 94 games47% · 146 games
TidehunterChodΣX
Tidehunter
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
51% · 35 games53% · 229 games
JakiroBb3px
Jakiro
Muerta
Muertaswedenstrong
47% · 206 games50% · 193 games
WeaverGilgir
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct31:14
1w Team 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
55% · 130 games43% · 189 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingSSS
54% · 202 games46% · 388 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
52% · 337 games51% · 199 games
Primal BeastChodΣX
Primal Beast
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
54% · 65 games46% · 169 games
WindrangerGilgir
Windranger
Tusk
TuskHduo
48% · 227 games61% · 16 games
RingmasterBb3px
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 58%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2