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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 29 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
65%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
62%

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 11 games
82%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 10 games
90%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 10 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 670 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 470 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 538 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
334 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
325 picks · 415 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 653 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 315 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
1w Team 44%PARIVISION 56%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
41% · 156 games52% · 220 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
45% · 60 games53% · 143 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingCloud
52% · 103 games62% · 92 games
MagnusDM
Magnus
Muerta
Muertaswedenstrong
50% · 90 games43% · 111 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
49% · 208 games50% · 51 game
Ogre MagiDukalis
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct5:30
1w Team 42%PARIVISION 58%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMunkushi~
45% · 89 games51% · 216 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
44% · 209 games54% · 261 game
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
52% · 131 game48% · 262 games
DoomDM
Doom
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
51% · 333 games43% · 169 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRESPECT
50% · 297 games61% · 151 game
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 64%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2