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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 32 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 31 game
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 23 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 22 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 21 game
81%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 21 game
62%

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 30 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
512 picks · 294 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 571 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 352 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
433 picks · 339 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 323 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 846 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
347 picks · 183 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
346 picks · 839 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
1w Team 31%PARIVISION 69%
The model gave 69% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
59% · 50 games44% · 109 games
KezSatanic
Kez
Puck
PuckSquad1x
54% · 246 games45% · 91 game
LycanNoticed
Lycan
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
52% · 125 games41% · 273 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Techies
Techiesswedenstrong
60% · 53 games48% · 55 games
GrimstrokeDukalis
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneRein
57% · 127 games46% · 73 games
Nyx Assassin9Class
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct18:41
1w Team 27%PARIVISION 73%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertav1olent-
45% · 201 game55% · 145 games
Nature's ProphetSatanic
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
48% · 181 game54% · 125 games
LeshracNo[o]ne
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSquad1x
45% · 274 games60% · 250 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
41% · 127 games53% · 262 games
PhoenixDukalis
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
35% · 27 games55% · 28 games
Earth Spirit9Class
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2