CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
Disruptor
Fishman · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 14 games
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
Tusk
flacko · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
Muerta
Fernans · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 732 bans
Phoenix
491 picks · 797 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 480 bans
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
Muerta
438 picks · 376 bans
Magnus
426 picks · 1026 bans
Bristleback
402 picks · 930 bans
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 764 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
1w Team 66%Passion UA 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMunkushi~
TinyCrystallize
MagnusChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knightniche
Dark SeerCloud
TidehunterBatyuk
Leshracswedenstrong
TuskFernans
SilencerFishman
Jakirokreker
Game 2prediction correct31:38
1w Team 67%Passion UA 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
BloodseekerCrystallize
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Magnusniche
Night StalkerCloud
MarsBatyuk
Winter WyvernFishman
WeaverFernans
Faceless Voidswedenstrong
Jakirokreker
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2