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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PlayTimewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
37%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
79%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 19 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 11 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Akashi · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
492 picks · 398 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 268 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 548 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
464 picks · 354 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
399 picks · 344 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
364 picks · 827 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 863 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
343 picks · 199 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:48
1w Team 55%PlayTime 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:04:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertav1olent-
47% · 263 games48% · 353 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarSquad1x
59% · 362 games47% · 394 games
TinyWits
Tiny
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
51% · 249 games50% · 190 games
AxeFrank
Axe
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
53% · 440 games51% · 319 games
PhoenixElmisho
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleRein
50% · 63 games41% · 121 game
Skywrath MageScofield
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed10:40
1w Team 53%PlayTime 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by PlayTime in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidv1olent-
51% · 33 games55% · 158 games
MuertaWits
Muerta
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
53% · 209 games54% · 100 games
DawnbreakerFrank
Dawnbreaker
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
46% · 273 games59% · 148 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Rubick
RubickRein
47% · 238 games46% · 119 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Techies
Techiesswedenstrong
45% · 59 games47% · 287 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed18:44
1w Team 54%PlayTime 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by PlayTime in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
40% · 291 game50% · 163 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Alchemist
Alchemistv1olent-
55% · 55 games49% · 235 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Batrider
Batriderмистер мораль
55% · 282 games51% · 27 games
Night StalkerFrank
Night Stalker
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
49% · 181 game46% · 29 games
Crystal MaidenElmisho
Crystal Maiden
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernRein
69% · 19 games50% · 374 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 56%
Series resultPlayTime 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3