ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:3series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:3
PuckChampwin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Batridersignature
RESPECT · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
Clockwerkoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
PuckChamp
Lionsignature
QBFY · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Kaori · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
BOOM · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Hoodwink
Kaori · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
470 picks · 646 bans
Clockwerk
405 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 507 bans
Luna
345 picks · 428 bans
Dark Willow
316 picks · 170 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 630 bans
Dragon Knight
304 picks · 381 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 77%
Hero pool strength58% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:30
1w Team 59%PuckChamp 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
LunaShad
MarsCloud
Queen of PainSancity
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
MagnusBOOM
Batriderswedenstrong
HoodwinkKaori
Shadow DemonRESPECT
LionQBFY
Game 2prediction missed23:23
1w Team 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 51:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
LunaShad
TinyChira JUNIOR
PangolierSancity
MarsCloud
MagnusBOOM
Batriderswedenstrong
HoodwinkKaori
Shadow DemonRESPECT
LionQBFY
Game 3prediction missed18:40
1w Team 59%PuckChamp 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
Chaos KnightShad
DawnbreakerCloud
DoomBOOM
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Sand KingSancity
BatriderRESPECT
PhoenixKaori
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
LionQBFY
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3