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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
46%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 20 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 18 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 17 games
53%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 43 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 34 games
41%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 26 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 557 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 529 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
465 picks · 413 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 235 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 901 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
1w Team 65%Rune Eaters 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidv1olent-
52% · 21 game50% · 275 games
Tinyyowaai
Tiny
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
53% · 281 game50% · 122 games
DoomAnkou
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
49% · 196 games50% · 29 games
Death ProphetEthereal
Death Prophet
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
55% · 316 games43% · 27 games
Ioani-san
Io
Lich
LichRein
53% · 11 games43% · 372 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct20:4
1w Team 60%Rune Eaters 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
42% · 318 games58% · 250 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
47% · 519 games56% · 387 games
Ember SpiritEthereal
Ember Spirit
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
50% · 446 games47% · 329 games
PangolierAnkou
Pangolier
Io
Ioswedenstrong
43% · 64 games52% · 227 games
PhoenixKidaro
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickRein
51% · 238 games54% · 392 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 72%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2