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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 31 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 30 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
48%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
71%

Silk

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kiri · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 941 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 643 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 645 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 962 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 656 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 538 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
386 picks · 236 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 29%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
1w Team 69%Silk 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorssnovv1
44% · 45 games52% · 233 games
BeastmasterDaaD-
Beastmaster
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
53% · 133 games47% · 232 games
MarsAdrx
Mars
Lina
LinaSquad1x
52% · 32 games55% · 202 games
SnapfireGenek
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixRein
54% · 142 games47% · 132 games
MarciMichael
Marci
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
45% · 447 games
Game 2prediction correct33:30
1w Team 68%Silk 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSquad1x
41% · 62 games48% · 62 games
KezDaaD-
Kez
Weaver
Weaverssnovv1
48% · 58 games45% · 131 game
BrewmasterAdrx
Brewmaster
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
61% · 107 games45% · 151 game
Bounty HunterMichael
Bounty Hunter
Chen
ChenRein
54% · 101 game57% · 210 games
MuertaGenek
Muerta
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
47% · 226 games
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 81%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2