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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 17 games
76%

Team Liquid

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 33 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 33 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
63%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 825 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
378 picks · 375 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
366 picks · 265 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
355 picks · 746 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
324 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 514 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
312 picks · 646 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 373 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
1w Team 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
49% · 285 games50% · 121 game
UrsamiCKe
Ursa
Doom
DoomCloud
49% · 212 games45% · 180 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
57% · 285 games48% · 360 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
52% · 264 games55% · 143 games
CheniNSaNiA
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
49% · 143 games46% · 385 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed29:11
1w Team 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
45% · 229 games49% · 218 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomCloud
50% · 158 games48% · 173 games
SnapfireNisha
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
53% · 236 games54% · 275 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
55% · 208 games46% · 203 games
WindrangerBoxi
Windranger
Rubick
RubickRESPECT
47% · 345 games52% · 307 games
SveniNSaNiA
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2