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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 30 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 28 games
46%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
80%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 20 games
60%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 20 games
50%

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 20 games
60%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 14 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 275 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 559 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
453 picks · 359 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 348 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 328 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
351 picks · 834 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 844 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 172 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:23
1w Team 64%Team Nemesis 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:02:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
50% · 39 games50% · 142 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
50% · 244 games49% · 180 games
Beastmaster4nalog
Beastmaster
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
48% · 284 games45% · 107 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Techies
Techiesswedenstrong
46% · 72 games58% · 235 games
HoodwinkLelis
Hoodwink
Oracle
OracleRein
49% · 41 game58% · 16 games
LichYamSun
Lich
Game 2prediction correct30:6
1w Team 66%Team Nemesis 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
52% · 98 games46% · 215 games
Muertarubikon155
Muerta
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
54% · 229 games42% · 137 games
Invoker4nalog
Invoker
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
54% · 157 games47% · 139 games
Primal BeastJabz
Primal Beast
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
54% · 83 games46% · 234 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
55% · 414 games50% · 256 games
RingmasterYamSun
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct24:6
1w Team 65%Team Nemesis 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingv1olent-
47% · 145 games48% · 405 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
42% · 131 game53% · 101 game
Alchemistrubikon155
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
52% · 212 games48% · 111 games
Viper4nalog
Viper
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
56% · 64 games54% · 76 games
GrimstrokeLelis
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
49% · 281 game53% · 140 games
SilencerYamSun
Silencer
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3