CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 3:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 3:1
TPTeam Publicloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 32 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Warlock
kasane · 27 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 21 game
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
Team Public
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 10 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
mrls · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 7 games
Weaver
Shad · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
772 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
578 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 561 bans
Jakiro
521 picks · 369 bans
Dragon Knight
502 picks · 609 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 281 bans
Mars
466 picks · 745 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
1w Team 73%Team Public 27%
The model gave 73% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
UrsaShigetsu
VenomancerSquad1x
Dragon Knightmangekyou
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Pangolierxn丶e
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
JakiroPuppey
Naga SirenRein
Skywrath Magemrls
Game 2prediction correct13:6
1w Team 73%Team Public 27%
The model gave 73% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 20:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMunkushi~
GyrocopterShigetsu
TimbersawSSS
Centaur Warrunnermangekyou
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Death Prophetxn丶e
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Shadow Demonmrls
WarlockRein
ClockwerkPuppey
Game 3prediction missed9:25
1w Team 73%Team Public 27%
The model gave 73% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Public in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMunkushi~
Dragon KnightShigetsu
SniperSquad1x
Puckxn丶e
Primal BeastSSS
ChenPuppey
JakiroRein
Night Stalkermangekyou
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Hoodwinkmrls
Game 4prediction correct27:16
1w Team 71%Team Public 29%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 51:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMunkushi~
JuggernautShigetsu
PuckSquad1x
Broodmothermangekyou
MarsSSS
Dragon Knightxn丶e
PhoenixRein
EnchantressPuppey
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Hoodwinkmrls
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 86%
Series result1w Team 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4