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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 16 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
374 picks · 608 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 565 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
365 picks · 291 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
346 picks · 716 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 195 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 343 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:16
1w Team 34%Virtus.pro 66%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
47% · 43 games53% · 89 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarCloud
55% · 37 games44% · 103 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
48% · 242 games47% · 157 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
55% · 192 games54% · 89 games
ChenFng
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
54% · 125 games45% · 201 game
Tinysayuw
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct8:18
1w Team 35%Virtus.pro 65%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
43% · 56 games48% · 137 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
55% · 136 games48% · 18 games
HuskarSquad1x
Huskar
Tiny
TinyCloud
46% · 155 games52% · 148 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Io
Ioswedenstrong
48% · 55 games50% · 91 game
LeshracFng
Leshrac
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
55% · 137 games51% · 145 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 77%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2