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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 31 game
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 31 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 27 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
71%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 28 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 23 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 21 game
76%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 946 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 438 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
486 picks · 641 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 632 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 960 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 661 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
397 picks · 242 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total55% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:9
1w Team 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
44% · 88 games52% · 216 games
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
51% · 236 games47% · 215 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
47% · 141 game54% · 155 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
51% · 135 games60% · 40 games
LargoFly
Largo
Warlock
WarlockRein
44% · 265 games53% · 239 games
Shadow ShamanHellscream
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct7:26
1w Team 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorssnovv1
49% · 71 game47% · 141 game
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
47% · 353 games51% · 340 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
54% · 195 games47% · 18 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
50% · 104 games49% · 213 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Pugna
PugnaRein
59% · 260 games46% · 271 game
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct37:13
1w Team 51%Virtus.pro 49%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorssnovv1
56% · 73 games46% · 188 games
UrsaTimado
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
59% · 463 games44% · 324 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
55% · 263 games52% · 244 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Dazzle
DazzleRein
50% · 167 games41% · 89 games
Skywrath MageHellscream
Skywrath Mage
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
47% · 172 games48% · 293 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3