CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 16 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Munkushi~ · 13 games
Wildcard Gaming
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 28 games
Magnussignature
Fayde · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 24 games
Chensignature
Speeed · 24 games
Pucksignature
RCY · 23 games
Tusk
Bignum · 22 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 535 bans
Shadow Shaman
464 picks · 506 bans
Ringmaster
419 picks · 217 bans
Tusk
382 picks · 370 bans
Jakiro
379 picks · 260 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 799 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 533 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:22
1w Team 53%Wildcard Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMunkushi~
LifestealerYamSun
Monkey KingSquad1x
PuckRCY
DazzleSSS
SlardarFayde
Warlockkasane
JakiroSpeeed
Rikiswedenstrong
MarciBignum
Game 2prediction correct32:11
1w Team 51%Wildcard Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMunkushi~
TerrorbladeYamSun
DawnbreakerSSS
InvokerRCY
LeshracSquad1x
Night StalkerFayde
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Dark WillowSpeeed
Dazzlekasane
RikiBignum
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 53%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2