CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 16 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 14 games
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 19 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 13 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Tiny
bottega · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 388 bans
Tusk
381 picks · 412 bans
Dark Willow
356 picks · 211 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
335 picks · 718 bans
Puck
323 picks · 827 bans
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:17
1w Team 66%Yellow Submarine 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMunkushi~
PuckMirele
Void SpiritSquad1x
Dragon Knightbottega
Tinyswedenstrong
DawnbreakerInfernal
DazzleSSS
Tuskmrls
Ogre Magikasane
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction correct36:15
1w Team 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMunkushi~
Tinybottega
PuckSquad1x
BeastmasterInfernal
MagnusSSS
Monkey KingMirele
Snapfireswedenstrong
RingmasterXakoda
Elder Titankasane
Lionmrls
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2