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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 32 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 29 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 29 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 28 games
39%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
55%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 32 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 25 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 20 games
55%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 17 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 844 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 431 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1144 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 689 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 622 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:17
1w Team 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
43% · 305 games50% · 28 games
LunaShigetsu
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
48% · 195 games54% · 119 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Alchemist
Alchemistv1olent-
52% · 48 games51% · 192 games
Storm SpiritRain
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickRein
46% · 67 games53% · 174 games
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Io
Ioswedenstrong
50% · 8 games57% · 110 games
PugnaXakoda
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed25:35
1w Team 65%Yellow Submarine 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 52:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
50% · 316 games49% · 112 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidv1olent-
61% · 63 games44% · 380 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
52% · 220 games54% · 226 games
Monkey KingRain
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireRein
50% · 417 games48% · 471 game
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
48% · 433 games47% · 260 games
PugnaXakoda
Pugna
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 75%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2