Friday Fight · BO3
result vs prediction
1WIN Staffloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KIBER staffwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1WIN Staff
No games played over 6 months.
KIBER staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 699 bans
Phoenix
495 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 479 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
428 picks · 368 bans
Magnus
419 picks · 1004 bans
Bristleback
397 picks · 914 bans
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 760 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% 1WIN Staff
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% 1WIN Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:34
1WIN Staff 60%KIBER staff 40%
The model gave 60% on 1WIN Staff — the game was taken by KIBER staff in 43:28.
Game 2prediction missed14:36
1WIN Staff 60%KIBER staff 40%
The model gave 60% on 1WIN Staff — the game was taken by KIBER staff in 36:03.
Model check result
Model favorite1WIN Staff · 60%
Series resultKIBER staff 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2