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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jing · 6 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jing · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 6 games
33%

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Techies
Techies
cml · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 4 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Tino- · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 530 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
319 picks · 482 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
309 picks · 241 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
299 picks · 176 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
298 picks · 568 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 254 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:32
Geek Fam 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Execration in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
48% · 102 games51% · 72 games
PuckBob
Puck
Razor
RazorMac
52% · 63 games47% · 33 games
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Lion
LionSkem
54% · 188 games48% · 112 games
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
Centaur Warrunner
49% · 78 games
Shadow DemonShanks
Shadow Demon
48% · 58 games
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Geek Fam 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMac
53% · 63 games39% · 58 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
60% · 70 games38% · 47 games
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkem
54% · 75 games56% · 12 games
Bounty HunterTino-
Bounty Hunter
48% · 52 games
TechiesShanks
Techies
49% · 39 games
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct14:2
Geek Fam 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 21:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMac
50% · 84 games54% · 57 games
Sven423
Sven
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
49% · 238 games43% · 178 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaSkem
55% · 237 games53% · 139 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
46% · 96 games
PhoenixShanks
Phoenix
49% · 89 games
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 61%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3