Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LLegacywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Double King · 4 games
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 3 games
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
319 picks · 525 bans
Mars
317 picks · 468 bans
Techies
307 picks · 237 bans
Batrider
296 picks · 559 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 175 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 248 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:39
GRIN esports 37%Legacy 63%
The model gave 63% on Legacy — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 34:56.
Game 2prediction correct30:11
GRIN esports 37%Legacy 63%
The model gave 63% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 29:44.
Game 3prediction correct34:12
GRIN esports 37%Legacy 63%
The model gave 63% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 39:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 63%
Series resultLegacy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3