Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 3 games
Sven
Ulnit · 3 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Bane
bengan · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Force · 2 games
Gyrocopter
NARMAN · 2 games
Omniknight
Force · 2 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
381 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
339 picks · 335 bans
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 528 bans
Mars
315 picks · 468 bans
Techies
306 picks · 236 bans
Batrider
295 picks · 557 bans
Hoodwink
294 picks · 175 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 246 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 70%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:22
MOUZ 52%Rest Farmers 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 36:48.
Game 2prediction correct35:15
MOUZ 52%Rest Farmers 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:08.
Game 3prediction missed24:48
MOUZ 52%Rest Farmers 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 47:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultRest Farmers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3