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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eagleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
flyfly · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Undyne_ · 2 games
100%

Eagle

Batrider
Batridersignature
Hara · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ukiyo · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Victoria · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 351 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 526 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
313 picks · 463 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
303 picks · 235 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
295 picks · 175 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 545 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 239 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:18
KEV 55%Eagle 45%
The model gave 55% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeflyfly
41% · 137 games59% · 63 games
Naga SirenManic
Naga Siren
Zeus
ZeusButterflyEffect
38% · 41 game58% · 43 games
LinaStorm
Lina
Pudge
PudgeELeVeN
40% · 43 games53% · 103 games
PhoenixHara
Phoenix
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerUndyne_
51% · 125 games57% · 137 games
TechiesVictoria
Techies
Game 2prediction correct30:18
KEV 55%Eagle 45%
The model gave 55% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterELeVeN
44% · 89 games56% · 54 games
Anti-MageManic
Anti-Mage
Lifestealer
Lifestealerflyfly
50% · 62 games61% · 110 games
PuckStorm
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
43% · 124 games47% · 85 games
Nature's ProphetHara
Nature's Prophet
Undying
UndyingUndyne_
51% · 211 games48% · 237 games
RubickVictoria
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 60%
Series resultKEV 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2