Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
Double King · 4 games
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 3 games
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 14 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 527 bans
Mars
315 picks · 462 bans
Techies
303 picks · 235 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 175 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 433 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
GRIN esports 34%nouns 66%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastITALIANO GANGSTA
Naga SirenYuma
Faceless VoidYamSun
Storm SpiritCopy
45% · 99 games
MarsGunnar
50% · 112 games
TinyLelis
54% · 68 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Game 2prediction correct13:33
GRIN esports 32%nouns 68%
The model gave 68% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYamSun
Death ProphetCopy
Dragon KnightITALIANO GANGSTA
SvenYuma
51% · 114 games
Primal BeastGunnar
60% · 105 games
TerrorbladeLelis
56% · 39 games
GrimstrokeFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 80%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2