?
arrow_backBack to match
RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 27 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 24 games
54%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 18 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 16 games
25%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
62%

JustBetter

Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 2 games
0%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 2 games
0%
Undying
Undying
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 524 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
315 picks · 459 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
302 picks · 234 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
296 picks · 173 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 541 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
282 picks · 432 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
Natus Vincere Junior 55%JustBetter 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
48% · 195 games48% · 98 games
MedusaFocus
Medusa
Slark
Slarkgotthejuice
53% · 137 games46% · 227 games
DoomSkyLark
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
53% · 116 games52% · 93 games
Void SpiritPanda
Void Spirit
Lion
LionDaze
44% · 148 games50% · 143 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Crystal Maiden
Chen
ChenRiddys
54% · 82 games53% · 117 games
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct33:17
Natus Vincere Junior 51%JustBetter 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
49% · 252 games52% · 157 games
MedusaFocus
Medusa
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
52% · 153 games53% · 271 game
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
43% · 211 games55% · 111 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Tiny
TinyDaze
46% · 182 games49% · 361 game
TechiesAstral
Techies
Pugna
PugnaRiddys
52% · 252 games49% · 150 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2