Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
(T(Not) The Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Double King · 3 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 3 games
(Not) The Cut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 520 bans
Mars
313 picks · 459 bans
Techies
302 picks · 234 bans
Hoodwink
296 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
289 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:37
GRIN esports 63%(Not) The Cut 37%
The model gave 63% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 37:54.
Game 2prediction correct46:38
GRIN esports 63%(Not) The Cut 37%
The model gave 63% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 43:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 63%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2