Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IRLD2loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 14 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
IRLD2
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 520 bans
Mars
313 picks · 459 bans
Techies
302 picks · 234 bans
Hoodwink
296 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
289 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
nouns 79%IRLD2 21%
The model gave 79% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 79%
Series resultnouns 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1