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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eaglewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Irving · 5 games
80%

Eagle

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 5 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
ukiyo · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Storm · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 350 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 328 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 519 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
312 picks · 457 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
301 picks · 231 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
289 picks · 170 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
285 picks · 530 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
282 picks · 431 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
Team Bright 62%Eagle 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Eagle in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXwy
42% · 73 games52% · 66 games
LinaStorm
Lina
Razor
RazorUlu
49% · 66 games58% · 98 games
GyrocopterManic
Gyrocopter
Enigma
EnigmaIrving
48% · 71 game48% · 153 games
BatriderHara
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTK
44% · 81 game55% · 94 games
Crystal MaidenVictoria
Crystal Maiden
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
52% · 120 games
Game 2prediction correct41:24
Team Bright 61%Eagle 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorUlu
49% · 45 games37% · 49 games
LinaManic
Lina
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTK
42% · 79 games62% · 21 game
ViperStorm
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterIrving
48% · 83 games61% · 69 games
Crystal MaidenVictoria
Crystal Maiden
Kunkka
KunkkaXwy
55% · 67 games51% · 142 games
BatriderHara
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
34% · 7 games
Game 3prediction missed13:44
Team Bright 61%Eagle 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Eagle in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidUlu
52% · 146 games57% · 87 games
LifestealerManic
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaXwy
39% · 89 games55% · 33 games
Outworld DestroyerStorm
Outworld Destroyer
Razor
RazorIrving
50% · 69 games53% · 254 games
RubickHara
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
50% · 145 games49% · 191 game
BatriderVictoria
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTK
45% · 116 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 72%
Series resultEagle 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3