Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blue pikachuloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Blue pikachu
Venomanceroften banned
Alren · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Alren · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Alren · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Alren · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 327 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 516 bans
Mars
311 picks · 449 bans
Techies
297 picks · 224 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 168 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 424 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Blue pikachu
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:7
TiltedBoys 56%Blue pikachu 44%
The model gave 56% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 26:36.
Game 2prediction missed29:49
TiltedBoys 56%Blue pikachu 44%
The model gave 56% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Blue pikachu in 42:24.
Game 3prediction correct42:12
TiltedBoys 56%Blue pikachu 44%
The model gave 56% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 35:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 56%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3