Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLLegacywin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDDegen Dinosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Degen Dinos
Batrideroften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 1 game
Dark Willow
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Rubick
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 327 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 516 bans
Mars
311 picks · 449 bans
Techies
297 picks · 224 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 168 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 424 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:17
Legacy 75%Degen Dinos 25%
The model gave 75% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 19:10.
Game 2prediction correct24:8
Legacy 75%Degen Dinos 25%
The model gave 75% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 12:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 75%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2